Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
A last-minute channel through Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland produces enough Iranian restraint to delay U.S. action. This is plausible because Gulf states have strong incentives to prevent attacks on energy infrastructure and air hubs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.