Possible scenario
Protests Intensify Locally
15% Chance
The sewer arrests may become a flashpoint for broader demonstrations against Netanyahu's UN visit and the ICC warrant dispute. New York authorities respond with larger exclusion zones, more arrests, and tighter coordination with federal security teams.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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