Possible scenario
SpaceX Contract Scrutiny
27% Chance
The probe becomes more adversarial, with lawmakers examining whether SpaceX complied with Pentagon tasking, outage notification clauses, and safety requirements for U.S. personnel near the front. The main risk is not immediate loss of service but a formal cure notice, withheld payments, or limits on future sole-source awards.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-6.2%
- VSAT+3.1%
- IRDM+1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.