Possible scenario
Administrative Review Prevails
38% Chance
The Pentagon opens an inspector general or internal acquisition review, but the inquiry focuses on ambiguous guidance and chain-of-command failures rather than misconduct. Starshield service remains restored for Ukrainian moving terminals while DoD tightens escalation procedures for service restrictions.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-1.4%
- VSAT+0.3%
- IRDM+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.