Possible scenario
Court Delays Project
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the federal judge treats DOJ's statement as evidence that the East Potomac closure and tree cutting moved ahead before a final agency decision. The court delays major work while requiring the National Park Service and DOJ to produce a clearer administrative record.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.