Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation
20% Chance
Riyadh responds militarily after repeated airport attacks, likely with targeted strikes on missile storage, drone launch sites, and command nodes in Yemen. The escalation is significant but still bounded, with Washington and London emphasizing air-defense support rather than direct war entry.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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