Possible scenario
Rapid Weakening Cleanup
45% Chance
Polo loses intensity quickly after interacting with Mexico's mountainous southwestern coast, limiting the damage footprint despite its Category 5 peak. Emergency response remains concentrated in Guerrero, Michoacán, and coastal transport corridors, with modest financial-market spillover.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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