Possible scenario
Digital Infrastructure Escalation
20% Chance
Both sides increasingly target data centers, telecom switching sites and AI compute facilities after the Yandex strike and Russia’s recent attacks on Kyiv data centers. This becomes a more visible risk for European digital infrastructure and wartime cloud capacity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
- Technology -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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