Possible scenario
US Escalates Enforcement
28% Chance
Washington treats the Turkey flights as a test of the sanctions deadline and increases pressure on airports, ground handlers, insurers, and fuel suppliers. The most likely path is targeted warnings before any broader secondary-sanctions action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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