Possible scenario
Turkey Maintains Access
42% Chance
Turkey continues allowing sanctioned Iranian carriers to land, arguing that aviation links are legal, limited, and necessary for regional connectivity. Ankara absorbs US criticism while avoiding a public rupture with Washington or Tehran.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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