Possible scenario
Negotiated Flight Reduction
20% Chance
Turkey seeks a compromise that preserves ties with Iran while reducing exposure to US sanctions. Ankara may cut frequencies, restrict cargo, or limit service to humanitarian and consular categories.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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