Possible scenario
Emergency Powers Invoked
26% Chance
The government concludes curfews are insufficient and activates state-of-emergency powers, including broader search, assembly and movement restrictions. The decision calms some districts but increases legal, political and investor uncertainty around France.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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