Possible scenario
Curfews Contain Unrest
42% Chance
Local curfews, mobile police deployments and gathering bans reduce riot intensity within several nights. Italy and Belgium see copycat protests, but they remain smaller and do not force national emergency powers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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