Managed Security Response

The most likely outcome is a contained U.S. security response: Treasury, the Secret Service, FBI and intelligence agencies increase protection for Scott Bessent without a major public confrontation with Tehran. Markets treat the confirmation as serious but largely anticipated because prior reporting already indicated Iranian threats and a relocation of Bessent.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.