Possible scenario
P5 Compromise Prevails
27% Chance
The permanent Security Council members prioritize a candidate who can keep UN operations stable and avoid open confrontation over human-rights dossiers. Bachelet's exit reinforces the view that candidates with strong public records on China, Russia or the United States face steep obstacles.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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