Possible scenario
Council Deadlock Extends
18% Chance
The selection process becomes a P5 bargaining exercise, with candidates blocked for perceived alignment on China, Ukraine, Gaza, development finance or institutional reform. Bachelet's weak poll result becomes evidence that no high-profile political figure can easily pass the veto screen.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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