Possible scenario
Somalia Relations Strain
15% Chance
Somalia's government protests the policy and argues that it stigmatizes Somali nationals while the country remains under pressure from drought, displacement, and al-Shabaab violence. Washington tries to preserve counterterrorism and aid cooperation while defending the admissions halt domestically.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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