Possible scenario
Freeze Mostly Holds
45% Chance
The administration implements the halt largely as announced, using refugee-allocation authority and security-screening justifications. Processing for Somali cases slows sharply while officials preserve narrow exceptions to reduce legal and diplomatic risk.
Tickers
- GEO+0.5%
- CXW+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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