Possible scenario
Negotiated Flight Exemptions
25% Chance
Washington may allow narrow aviation exemptions if Baghdad and Abu Dhabi demonstrate strong controls over sanctioned airlines, payments, and cargo manifests. This would preserve the sanctions architecture while reducing pressure on civilians and regional airport operations.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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