Managed Institutional Continuity

The first results hold broadly through final certification, producing a presidency split between nationalist Serb and Croat members and a left-leaning Bosniak member such as Denis Bećirović. Despite sharp rhetoric, the three-member presidency continues the familiar pattern of vetoes, ethnic bargaining and limited cooperation on budgets, EU files and security coordination.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.