Possible scenario
Croat Reform Bargain
15% Chance
A strong Croat nationalist showing, especially by HDZ BiH figures such as Dragan Čović or Borjana Krišto's bloc, pushes electoral reform back to the center of Bosnia's agenda. The dispute focuses on how the Croat presidency member is selected and whether Federation institutions can function without another prolonged standoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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