Possible scenario
Formal Probe Advances
42% Chance
Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and other opposition figures convert the demand into a formal Knesset process. Coalition discipline weakens enough for a limited investigative mandate, especially if reservist groups and families of Oct. 7 victims keep the issue in the news.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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