Possible scenario
Damaging Evidence Emerges
18% Chance
New documents or testimony indicate that warnings from Egypt or the UAE were more specific than previously acknowledged. The political risk to Netanyahu increases because the issue shifts from intelligence failure to whether warnings were mishandled at the prime ministerial level.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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