Possible scenario
Attrition Campaign Continues
42% Chance
Israel continues targeted strikes against Hamas command, finance, and tactical cells rather than announcing a major new ground phase. Hamas absorbs losses but retains enough decentralized capability for guerrilla attacks, sniper fire, and improvised explosives against Israeli troops.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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