Possible scenario
Republicans Close Gap
30% Chance
Republicans narrow the Democratic advantage as late mail ballots and in-person early voting accelerate. The pattern resembles 2024, when Republican turnout improved after Democrats built an initial early-vote edge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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