Possible scenario
Early Signal Misleads
18% Chance
The Democratic ballot pace proves less predictive than it appears because the electorate composition changes after Oct. 15. Independents, unaffiliated voters, and late Republican ballots dilute the Democratic advantage.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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