Possible scenario
Democratic Edge Holds
42% Chance
Arizona Democrats maintain a clear early-vote advantage as Maricopa County ballot returns stay above the 2024 pace. Katie Hobbs benefits from Latino and suburban participation, while Andy Biggs struggles to offset the deficit before Election Day.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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