Possible scenario
Pro-Growth Resolution
20% Chance
Authorities present the probes as part of a pro-competition agenda that supports small merchants and consumers while preserving confidence in private technology companies. This would align with Xi Jinping’s February 2025 outreach to private tech leaders and could reassure investors that enforcement is predictable.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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