Possible scenario
Yen weakness resumes
25% Chance
Some investors interpret the absence of intervention as tolerance for renewed yen weakness, especially if U.S. yields and the dollar remain firm. Tokyo responds first with stronger verbal warnings, but avoids immediate market operations unless moves become disorderly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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