Possible scenario
Intervention credibility returns
20% Chance
The zero-spending period is seen as a sign that Tokyo's prior joint intervention with the U.S. created a durable deterrent. Authorities maintain that they can re-enter the market if moves become one-sided, keeping traders cautious about pressing yen shorts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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