Possible scenario
Hands-off stability
40% Chance
Japan's zero-yen intervention disclosure is read as evidence that the late-August operation restored enough two-way risk to keep authorities on the sidelines. The Finance Ministry and Bank of Japan continue relying on credibility, verbal guidance, and the BOJ's 2% inflation framework rather than fresh dollar selling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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