Possible scenario
Sanctions Insurance Squeeze
20% Chance
Western governments respond through legal and financial channels rather than matching Russia ship-for-ship. The EU, UK, and US expand designations on shadow-fleet owners, managers, insurers, and port-service providers, increasing compliance costs for Russian oil and LNG logistics.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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