Possible scenario
Evidence Issues Emerge
20% Chance
A less likely but realistic path is that defense lawyers challenge the reliability of key evidence, including surveillance footage, witness identification, or statements made after arrest. Such disputes could delay the case or narrow the charges without ending prosecution.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.