Possible scenario
Energy Shock Deepens
25% Chance
The Iran-related energy shock worsens, keeping European gas prices near crisis levels and pushing inflation expectations higher. Investors sell European cyclicals and energy-intensive companies while oil and gas producers benefit from higher commodity prices.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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