Possible scenario
Unilateral Payment Clash
20% Chance
Trump follows through on his claim that Congress is unnecessary, creating a constitutional and appropriations dispute. Courts, Treasury officials, and congressional leaders become central to whether any checks can be issued without new legislation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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