Possible scenario
Republicans Keep Congress
35% Chance
Republicans retain both chambers in the 2026 midterms, giving Trump a realistic path to pursue a household dividend through budget legislation. The promise becomes a centerpiece of the lame-duck and early 2027 agenda, though deficit hawks and procedural limits shape the final version.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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