Possible scenario
Democrats Block Payments
30% Chance
Democrats win the House or otherwise gain enough leverage to stop a universal payment bill. The campaign promise remains politically useful for Trump, but legislative prospects fade and markets treat the fiscal impulse as less likely.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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