Possible scenario
Clearance Without Truce
30% Chance
The administration grants the clearance but continues litigation and funding pressure over sanctuary policies. This is the most politically durable compromise: Mamdani gets access to classified briefings, while Trump avoids appearing to soften on immigration enforcement.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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