Possible scenario
Meeting Track Advances
38% Chance
Zelenskyy's proposals give Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner enough structure to arrange another high-level U.S.-Ukraine session. This is the most likely path because both Kyiv and Washington have incentives to keep the Miami channel alive while avoiding an immediate public rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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