Possible scenario
Diplomacy Stalls Quietly
23% Chance
The proposals produce more process but no concrete meeting date, weapons commitment, or Russia-facing plan. This is a realistic outcome because the Kushner-Witkoff channel is informal and the Trump administration has competing incentives between pressure on Kyiv and a visible peace effort.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- LMT-0.2%
- RTX-0.2%
- NOC-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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