Possible scenario
Concession Framework Emerges
26% Chance
Witkoff and Kushner use Zelenskyy's proposals to shape a more concrete U.S. framework for a ceasefire, likely including difficult terms for Kyiv. This path is plausible because Trump has repeatedly signaled impatience with Zelenskyy and openness to Putin's claim that Moscow wants peace.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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