Possible scenario
Inquiry Widens
28% Chance
A formal review gains momentum as investigators seek documents from the Prime Minister's Office, the IDF, Shin Bet, and Military Intelligence. This scenario is plausible because the timeline already contains multiple reports that foreign and Israeli warnings were mishandled before the Hamas attack.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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