Possible scenario
Saudi Offensive Contains Houthis
40% Chance
Saudi air power and allied Yemeni ground forces slow the Houthi push before it can consolidate control over additional oil-route chokepoints. The conflict remains active, but the immediate threat to Saudi oil infrastructure and Riyadh eases.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.