Negotiated De-escalation

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Oman, the United Nations, and possibly the United States push both sides toward a pause in missile attacks as the Sanaa offensive raises the risk of uncontrolled escalation. This outcome lowers the near-term geopolitical risk premium in oil and supports regional travel and risk assets.

What it moves

Energy−0.6%
Consumer Services+0.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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