Possible scenario
Valuation Delay
20% Chance
The transaction slows as investors question domestic gas tariffs, Jafurah execution risk, and the economics of absorbing a 50 billion cubic meter surplus. This would echo earlier Jafurah project obstacles and could pressure Aramco shares without causing a broad market shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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