Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
30% Chance
Moscow answers the UAV surge with larger missile and Shahed attacks on Ukrainian energy, ports, rail nodes, and defense factories. This is consistent with Russia's recent pattern of striking Ukrainian infrastructure after high-profile attacks on Russian territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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