Possible scenario
Russian Infrastructure Hit
15% Chance
A subset of the 403 UAVs reaches economically important Russian infrastructure, such as refineries, pipelines, power substations, or transport nodes. This would make the attack more consequential for commodity markets, especially if repairs take days rather than hours.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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