Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Widens
20% Chance
Eritrean involvement grows beyond limited cross-border support, widening the conflict across Afar and northern Tigray. This path is less likely than a localized battlefield stalemate but remains plausible after the Eritrean army entered Afar on September 28.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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