Possible scenario
Rebel Offensive Revives
25% Chance
The recapture of Erebi proves temporary as Tigray rebel units regroup and use familiar terrain to renew pressure on Ethiopian army positions. The risk is meaningful because the rebels recently seized airports and signaled the end of the 2022 peace framework.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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