Possible scenario
Federal Advance Holds
40% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force consolidates its recapture of Erebi and slows the Tigray rebel offensive without immediately retaking major urban centers. This is the most likely path because battlefield reversals often produce a short pause while both sides reposition around roads, airstrips, and supply depots.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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